Closest CallStrategy and odds
What the total of 15 dice really does, the exact odds for every Mark, and how to bet each roll.
The one number to remember: 52.5
In Closest Call your Mark wins if it is the highest one at or under the total of 15 dice. Each die averages 3.5, so fifteen dice average 52.5. The total can be anything from 15 to 90, but the extremes almost never happen:
- About 71% of hands finish between 46 and 59.
- About 95% of hands finish between 40 and 65.
- A total of 53 or higher happens exactly half the time.
The odds for every Mark
This table shows how often the final total reaches each Mark, which is how often that Mark is not over. The numbers are exact, not estimates.
| Mark | Total reaches it | Mark | Total reaches it | Mark | Total reaches it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 97.6% | 50 | 67.3% | 60 | 14.6% |
| 41 | 96.5% | 51 | 61.8% | 61 | 11.4% |
| 42 | 95.2% | 52 | 56.0% | 62 | 8.8% |
| 43 | 93.4% | 53 | 50.0% | 63 | 6.6% |
| 44 | 91.2% | 54 | 44.0% | 64 | 4.8% |
| 45 | 88.6% | 55 | 38.2% | 65 | 3.5% |
| 46 | 85.4% | 56 | 32.7% | 66 | 2.4% |
| 47 | 81.6% | 57 | 27.4% | 67 | 1.7% |
| 48 | 77.3% | 58 | 22.7% | 68 | 1.1% |
| 49 | 72.6% | 59 | 18.4% | 69 | 0.7% |
Below 40 a Mark is almost never over, and above 69 it almost always is. To check any other number, or the odds part-way through a hand, use the dice odds calculator.
Being safe is not the same as winning
A Mark of 42 is under the total 95% of the time, but it rarely wins a big table, because someone else usually has a higher Mark that is also under. A Mark of 58 beats nearly everyone when it comes in, but it only comes in about 1 hand in 4. Every Mark is a trade between how often you are still alive and how many players you beat when you are.
- At a full table, the winning Mark tends to sit just under the total. Marks in the low 50s give you a real chance of being that player.
- Against one or two players, there are fewer Marks to beat, so a slightly lower, safer Mark does better.
- If every player left is over, the lowest Mark wins. So when the dice run cold, the cautious players collect.
- Vary your Mark. If you always pick the same number, observant players will pick one above it.
Reading the rolls
Your Mark is locked before any dice are rolled, so after that the only decision is how to bet. Each roll tells you more about where the total will end.
After the first roll
Take the five dice showing and add 35, the average of the ten dice still to come. That is your best estimate of the final total. An average first roll is 17 or 18. If the first roll is 24, the expected finish is about 59, and high Marks have suddenly become strong. If it is 11, expect about 46, and low Marks are in charge.
After the second roll
Take the ten dice showing and add 17.5. Only five dice remain, and five dice land between 13 and 22 about 80% of the time, so the final total is now within a narrow range.
When your Mark is already made
If the running total has already reached your Mark, you cannot go over. You are certain to be alive at the showdown, and the only question is whether someone holds a higher Mark that will also be reached. The table shows your live odds during every hand.
Betting
- Bet when the dice move toward your Mark. A hot first roll favours high Marks, a cold one favours low Marks. Bet when the roll helped you and be careful when it did not.
- Watch who bets after which roll. A player who comes alive after a big roll probably picked high. One who bets steadily after a small roll probably picked low. That tells you whether your Mark is above or below theirs.
- You can win without the best Mark. If everyone else folds, you take the pot and never show your number.
- Fold when the total cannot reach you. If you need the last five dice to total 26 or more, you need nearly all sixes. Let it go.
- In tournaments, protect your stack. Blinds rise on a timer, and you cannot rebuy. Pick your spots.