Closest Call Blog · October 9, 2026 · 3 min read

The Last Five Dice: Know What You Still Need

After the second roll, ten of the fifteen dice are on the table and only five are left. This is the point in a hand where guessing stops. Subtract the running total from your Mark. The answer is what the last five dice have to add up to, and five dice are easy to read.

Five dice do not wander far

Five dice add up to somewhere between 5 and 30, and they average 17.5. The most likely results are 17 and 18, at 10% each. More than half of all last rolls land from 15 to 20, and four in five land from 13 to 22.

So the finish is close to the running total plus 17 or 18. If the table shows 36 after two rolls, the hand is heading for 53 or 54, and four times in five it ends somewhere from 49 to 58.

The table to remember

Here is the chance that the last five dice add up to at least the number you still need.

Two rows are worth learning by heart. Needing 18 is an even chance. And the middle of the table moves in steps of about ten: needing 17 is 60%, 19 is 40%, 20 is 30%. One point either way is worth roughly a tenth of the pot's odds, which is a lot for a single pip.

A worked example

The first two rolls add up to 33. Three players are still in, with Marks of 48, 52 and 56, though of course none of them can see the others' numbers.

• The 48 needs 15. The dice get there 77.9% of the time.
• The 52 needs 19. That is a 40% shot.
• The 56 needs 23. That happens less than one time in ten.

Getting there is only half the story, because the highest Mark that is not over takes the pot. The 56 wins whenever it comes in, so it wins about 10% of the time. The 52 wins when the dice add up to 19, 20, 21 or 22, which is about 30%. The 48 wins when they add up to 15, 16, 17 or 18, about 38%. And about 22% of the time the last roll is 14 or less, every Mark is over, and the lowest one, the 48 again, takes it.

The cautious Mark wins this hand six times in ten. Before the dice, 48 looked like a timid pick. After a slightly cool pair of rolls it is the best number at the table.

When your Mark is already made

Five dice always add up to at least 5. If you need 5 or less, the total is certain to reach your Mark and you cannot go over. If you need 8 or less you are still better than 99% safe. Your only question now is whether somebody else picked a higher number that will also come in. Players who start betting hard at this point often have exactly that.

When to let it go

Five dice cannot add up to more than 30. If you need 31 or more, your Mark is finished whatever happens, and you can only win if every other player left is over as well and picked even higher than you did, or if they all fold.

Well before that point the odds have already gone. A simple guide for the last betting round:

• Need 16 or less: you are a clear favourite to come in. Bet, and make the higher Marks pay to see the last roll.
• Need 17 to 19: close to a coin flip. Call reasonable bets, and think twice before raising.
• Need 20 to 22: you will miss more than two times in three. Call only if it is cheap compared with the pot.
• Need 23 or more: fewer than one in ten. Fold to a real bet, unless you have a good reason to think everyone else is in the same trouble.

The same sum works earlier in the hand with ten dice still to come. That one is covered in Reading the First Roll. For any number not in the table above, set the dice odds calculator to 5 dice and type in what you still need.

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